AI will build your action plan in 10 seconds

You can ask AI to think and plan something. For example, create a marketing plan for a project. And it will "think" and produce a beautiful text with arguments, break down the plan into stages, phases, periods, and categories. Only this plan will have nothing to do with reality.

Create a 7-year growth plan for my project

Phase 1 (0-6 months): launch, first 100 users from personal contacts
Phase 2 (6-12 months): organic growth, 500-1000 users, feedback from them and product improvement
Phase 3 (1-2 years): product-market fit, 3-5K users, launch of paid acquisition channels
Phase 4 (2-4 years): scaling, 10-30K users, achieving stable revenue
Phase 5 (4-7 years): maturity, 50-100K users, expansion into adjacent markets and segments

How many installs will my app get after launch?

Pessimistic: 100-500 in the first month
Realistic: 1000-3000 in the first month
Optimistic: 10000+ in the first month

How to attract the first users to my product?

Create a Twitter/X account and post content in a build-in-public format
Write an article on Hacker News
Post the product on Product Hunt
Launch a free newsletter with useful content
Find 10 relevant communities on Reddit and become an active participant

These answers are equally useless. Even if you provide him with the project context and past decisions, he still won't be able to think and will only write a plausible plan. In reality, it turns out that HN posts rarely make it to the front page, there's no one to send the newsletter to, X barely gives any transitions from external links, and Reddit bans for self-promotion.

He can convince you that your startup is definitely a blue ocean, and your main feature is definitely product-market fit. But the future is stochastic, AI cannot predict it. His pessimistic forecasts are never equal to zero, most likely because in the training data, such forecasts most often have no zeros. Although if you ask him, "but could there be 0 users in a year?", he will agree with that. His forecasts are simply a synonym for "I don't know."

Planning with AI is almost no different from planning with an incompetent person. A person without AI can draw up the same plan. But in most cases, whether planned by a person or AI, the plan does not survive contact with reality. People have always produced plausible text about the future as a forecast, AI has simply accelerated this. Before, it was expensive and time-consuming, so it seemed valuable. Now AI generates the same plausible plan in 10 seconds, and it becomes clear that the king is naked.